Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to boost capital expenditure to help India regain the fastest-growing major economy title risks being derailed by the nation’s cash-strapped states, which are cutting back on such spending.

印度总理莫迪(Narendra Modi)制定了一个计划,旨在增加资本支出,以帮助印度重获增长最快主要经济体的头衔,因资金短缺,印度各邦纷纷削减此类支出,该计划有脱轨风险。

The nation’s 28 states, which account for about 60% of total government expenditure on infrastructure and asset creation, are hamstrung by declining tax revenue and the cost of fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. Also, unlike the federal government, provinces don’t have the flexibility to borrow more to maintain spending as that would lead to a fiscal deficit blowout.

印度28邦的基础设施支出和资产创造支出约占政府总支出的60%,这些邦被税收下降和抗疫成本的困扰。此外,与中央政府不同,各地方邦政府没有足够的灵活性来借入更多的资金来维持支出,因为这将导致财政赤字激增。

“While central expenditure growth has picked up significantly over the last three months, states continue to compress expenditure to maintain fiscal balance,” said Samiran Chakraborty, an economist at Citigroup Inc. “This may dampen the overall growth.”

花旗集团(Citigroup Inc .)经济学家萨米兰查克拉博蒂(Samiran Chakraborty)表示:“虽然过去三个月里,中央政府支出增长明显加快,但各地方邦却持续压缩支出,以保障财政平衡。这将会抑制印度经济整体增长。"


Modi’s government this month proposed boosting capital expenditure by 26% to 5.54 trillion rupees ($76 billion) next fiscal year starting April, hoping the multiplier effect of such spending will result in a world-beating double-digit expansion for the economy that’s headed for its biggest contraction this year.

莫迪政府本月提议,从4月开始的下一个财政年中财政支出将增加26%,增加至5.54万亿卢比(约合760亿美元),在本财年印度经济出现有史以来最大萎缩的情况下,印度政府希望该支出形成乘数效应使印度经济在出现创纪录的两位数的增长。

The Reserve Bank of India estimates that every one rupee spent by the federal government will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 3.14 rupees, while similar spending by states will boost output by 2 rupees. But states aren’t spending enough, according to an analysis by QuantEco Research economist Yuvika Singhal.

印度储备银行(Reserve Bank of India)估计,印度中央政府每支出1卢比,国内生产总值(GDP)将增加3.14卢比,而各邦政府每支出1卢比,将会增加2卢比的产出。但根据QuantEco研究院经济学家辛哈尔的分析,各州的支出还远远不够。